Sep/095
Padres Put 3 on BA PHS
Padres über-prospect Jaff Decker made a return trip to the weekly Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet at #7. “One of the most mature hitters for his age you’ll find, Decker looks like he’s saved his best for last. Decker hit .320/.434/.550 in 100 August at-bats… He’s also been the best hitter on the winningest team in the minors, leading Fort Wayne to a 90-46 record entering the season’s final weekend.”
Un-surprisingly, hot-hitting Chad Huffman ranked 10th on the list. “With a two-run shot on Wednesday, Huffman clubbed his 20th homer of the year—and he’s taken just 524 PAs to get there.” BA fails to mention that Huffman got hits in 9 straight at-bats.
Unfortunately, Mitch Canham made the “Not-So Hot List” portion of the list.
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5:44 pm on September 4th, 2009
But isn’t Jaff Decker too fat to be a true prospect? Isn’t that the prevailing wisdom and what BA said when he was drafted?
I guess not. lol
Canham has really fallen as a prospect his year. When your bat is the reason for your standing as a prospect at catcher and you hit in the .260’s, you are no longer much of a prospect.
7:42 am on September 8th, 2009
Not at all what BA said about Decker. In fact, this is exactly what they said about him on draft day:
“Decker looks like a younger version of Matt Stairs with a compact, strong body, and he’s earned comparisons to the Canadian slugger as well, though Decker throws lefthanded. Scouts mean the comparison as a compliment, because Decker can really hit…He’s a baseball player and grinder who has become an area scout’s favorite.”
These ideas that BA or anyone else is somehow out to get us are simply uninformed. No advantage accrues to them by underrating prospects from a particular team. There’s a lot of crowing when a player they questioned has a nice season, but nary a peep when the questions turn out to be valid (Canham, Antonelli, LeBlanc, and many more).
Nobody liked it when I dropped the George Kottaras comp on Canham, but they share a lot of strengths and weaknesses. He could still have a solid career in a platoon role, or even be a starter if some things click right, but bad defense and mediocre hitting does not typically get you a starting catcher’s gig. You can have no bat at all with good defense and a manager will love you unnaturally, or hit like a stud and suddenly see your defensive scouting reports improve without actually getting any better, but the middle of the road in both categories makes you road kill.
Next year may be make-or-break for Canham and Hunter, but Huffman’s AAA campaign shows it can be done. I’d expect Chad to open the season as the starting LF, barring any trades. On a contending team he might need a platoon partner, because his rate stats for his career are much better vs southpaws, but there’s no harm in giving him 500 at-bats next year regardless of the opposing pitcher. We’ll see if Venable comes back to earth, which means we have a platoon partner, or if he keeps hitting, which makes him the starting RF for a few years. I wish he was the starting CF, because Gwynn Jr is still mostly just a name, but I expect the team will go with Tony until his lack of production becomes impossible to ignore.
11:04 am on September 8th, 2009
To clarify my post: I expect Huffman to be starting in LF because I think the odds are 51 to 49 that Adrian and Kouz get traded. Obviously if Blanks, Adrian, and Kouz are all still around, the opportunities for Huffman (and Headley) shrink.
11:59 am on September 8th, 2009
TW, I don’t think Huffman is the 2010 LF starter but not because of the trade likelihood – but because Huffman has struggled and – I think – will be overmatched.
I agree on Kouz, not on AGon.
BA was higher on Antonelli than they were on Decker (on each’s draft day).
I’ve heard from pretty good sources that the team likes Venable best in CF.
12:39 pm on September 8th, 2009
Like I said, it’s only a 2 point spread in my mind whether they clear the decks enough to make room for Huffman. Moving one player doesn’t do it. If they do move enough players, then they’re conceding 2010 (which might be smart anyway) and you might as well find out what Huffman can do in the majors. I don’t expect him to keep up the 350 BABIP against righties in the majors, either, but if the space is there and you’re not likely to win, give him the chance. Maybe you find out he’s Bubba Trammell, a valuable player when used and paid in proportion to his skills.
BA’s been higher on a lot of players than they were (and probably still are) on Decker. That’s way different than claiming they called him a fat, bat-only overdraft who wasn’t a true prospect — not your claim. In addition to the part of the BA scouting report I quoted above, they also said he had the arm to be at least a LOOGY reliever and would be a two-way star in college if he got there. I’m mostly arguing (again) against the idea that the poor ole Padres are getting an unfair shaft from professional prospect watchers, to the point that people attribute negative comments to experts who actually said good things about our players.
Venable fits best in CF, but to make that move they have to deal with the fan fallout of bringing in Gwynn, seeing him put up superficially decent numbers, and then either putting him on the bench or cutting him loose. They don’t have a terrific track record when it comes to making those kind of tough decisions — witness Kouz and Headley’s continued presence on the roster. Let’s hope they can make this one, which is only tough in the PR sense.